FULL UFC Vegas 69
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We are back at the Apex! There are very few names that will jump out at you, and the card is weirdly built. Some of the fights near the top of the card are the least interesting. But the main event is a high stakes contest, looking forward to seeing how Blanchfield handles one of the best in the world.
Clayton Carpenter has the makings of a fun UFC fighter, but like many his age and coming off the contender series, he is green. His opponent, Juancamilo Ronderos appears to be fairly limited athletically. Need to be careful backing Carpenter as he goes, but this should be a good warmup fight against a borderline pro fighter.
AJ Fletcher vs Themba Gorimbo is an interesting one, every week there is a fight that feels like the line is a focal point. AJ Fletcher is being priced at a great than 70% win probability. I just don’t see it, especially at that price. AJ is still looking for his first UFC win, and his previous wins are against some of the lowest levels of professional MMA. Fighters who are years removed from their most recent professional MMA wins, fighters with sub .500 records. I get the AJ support, it does look like there is some sort of there there, but he has not proven to have an ability to beat UFC level competition. He also has a tough style matchup on his hands here. Themba is far from a world beater, but his physicality and heavy grappling approach could cause problems for the green AJ Fletcher. Worth a shot at these prices.
Jamall Emmers vs Khusein Askhabov is probably the second best fight on the card. Jamall Emmers UFC career is off to a rough start, he lost his debut to Giga Chikadze in a close split decision, and in his third fight he was caught in a nasty heel hook after looking good in the first two minutes of the fight. Emmers will have another tough test in the 23-0 Askahbov. It is difficult to find recent tape on him and he has been away for awhile, but he has some surface level qualities that make him interesting. 23-0, sambo champion, his name ends in “ov”. I may bet the O 1.5 in this one, but other than that, I think I will avoid. Not enough known about Askhabov.
I am putting Bueano Silva in the top line, she is the biggest favorite on the card, and I believe her to be be the rightful favourite. Lansberg will want to strike, but Silva will be more than capable to exchange, and there is a wide gap on the ground.
Nazim Sadykhov vs Evan Edler is one I am looking forward to seeing play out. Both are fairly unproven, but I believe it will be Nazim who proves definitively to be the one who belongs in the UFC. Elder represented himself well on short notice in a higher weight class than he normally competes in, but I think this fight will be a good example of a tough guy who trains MMA vs a professional athlete. Nazim is a much more seasoned martial artist, and it shows in his technique. He will also have the strength and power to dictate where this fights goes. I could see Nazim blowing his load early, and Edler grinding his way to a decision. These UFC newcomers can be less predictable, but I am backing who I believe is more likely to be a competitive fighter in the UFC long term.
Jim Miller vs Alex Hernandez is so interesting. Jim is old and on a win streak. Alex is young and on a losing streak. They both have advantages and disadvantages when you line up their grappling vs striking. I can’t find a line I like, this feels to unpredictable to cap. Looking forward to it though.
This new main event is far more interesting. Andrade is a big step up for Blanchfield. This current version of Jessica Andrade is one of the best fighters in the world. Andrade proved to be one of the most feared strikers in women’s MMA in her last fight against the very tough Lauren Murphy. Andrade absolutely battered her. It was so bad, the fight not being stopped was a topic of discussion online for like a week after the fight. Blanchfield does present a stylistic challenge to Andrade, and there could be large portions of the fight where the bigger Blanchfield is grinding on Andrade in the small cage. Andrade has shown vulnerabilities to grapplers who can outmuscle her, however, that is asking a lot from the 23 year old Erin Blanchfield. Andrade is not a scrub when it comes to grappling, and the gap in their striking will be far greater. I expect Andrade to offer far more resistance to Erins game than any fighter she has ever faced. And as the fight goes, the damage caused by Andrades strikes will eventually prove her to be the fighter closer to the top of the division at this moment.