Straight Bets

I like Guram, he is explosive, athletic and well rounded. He has a lot of combat sports experience and has been a lifelong martial artist. His win against Gamrot will age well. Damir is really good, and another tough fight for Guram in the UFC, but I think he clips him and takes him out. Damir was hurt early in his last fight, and he could have issues with Gurams speed and technical striking.

Gregory Rodrigues via submission is under priced here. Marquez has been easy to take down and Rodrigues is a BJJ ace, that seems to be his easiest path to victory. Give him better than 21% chance he can land the sub. Rodrigues is the main part of my parlay, so will be happy with a win either way. Juicing it up bit with this prop.

Duraev is being over priced. Joaquin has far more experience against high level competition over the last few years. And he will be much more in the fight throughout the whole 15 minutes in comparison to Duraev’s last UFC opponent. Duraev’s last fight was not a great fight, and it does not seem justified to make Duraev such a big favourite after that showing. Especially against someone who has the physical abilities and skills of Joaquin Buckley. Small play, but like the line.

Joe seems to be much more into fighting these days than Cowboy. Cowboy is a very much a fighter that gets in his own head, and going without a win for so long must be shaking his confidence.

Cowboy is a notorious slow starter, and Joe won early in his last fight. Placing a small bet that Joe can get it done early.

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Main Parlay

Bit of a chalky event. But it was still a tough event to lockdown the plays for the parlay. The first event I have not done a hedge parlay in awhile. Keeping this one simple.

Stamann: Stamann is a solid fighter. He has run into a skid, and it can be tough to bank on fighters who have gone winless. But this is a favourable stylistic matchup, and Eddie has not fared much better recentley. Cody is still all in on his MMA career, and Eddie seems to have one foot out the door. He has a full time job! Ok with laying the chalk here

Rodrigues: This is a good matchup for Rodrigues. He spent most of his last fight standing with a high level striker, and many would argue he got the best of those exchanges! And the obvious play here for him is to take this to the ground, this is where Rodrigues is strong, and Marquez has been easy to take down. Like the value here on Rodrigues.

Adding Daukaus and Ramos!

Daukaus: Kyle is a really solid fighter. He has run into some tough opponents and has had some bad luck, but he has a much higher skill set than anyone Roman has beat in the UFC. Guys like Roman Dolidze can be a little scary to bet against, he will grind and neutralize his opponents. But eventually, guys like this run into fighters who have the answer to their grind. And Kyle’s physical strength, strong grappling skills, and superior striking should be enough to take the fight.

Ramos: The younger more UFC tested fighter is in a different category. Ramos is someone who could eventually sneak into the top 10. The 35 year old Chavez is in tough here against the younger more experienced fighter.

Adding in Yanez and Hawes.

Yanez: Kelley could be tough, and if he is able to push forward and bully Yanez, this could be a tough fight for Yanez. But Yanez should be able to find his range and find his punches to take Kelley out, or at least do the damage and steal the rounds.

Hawes: If this becomes a wrestling match, Winn could take it. But it isn’t a wrestling match, and in MMA Winn has not had nearly the same success. Hawes has also showed more progression and better striking in his MMA game. Overall, Hawes should be the better MMA fighter.

Adding a couple dogs. Have these guys in some straight plays, putting them in this part of the parlay to juice it up.

Adding two more picks that are favourites, but lower conviction.

Holland: The hope is that Holland is too fast and his clean and powerful strikes eventually find Means chin. But Mean is a solid wrestler, he has enough striking to survive and use his wrestling to take rounds.

Kattar: Kattar is expensive here, but I do like him. I think he will find his jab and out strike Emmett and as the fight goes, and as the damage piles up, it will be harder for Emmett to find the big KO punch.

Final addition! Adding in Buckley to make it extra juicy!

FULL Main Parlay

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LONG SHOT PARLAY

The long shot this week!
Good luck!!

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FULL UFC Austin
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